Modeling and estimation of snow depth spatial correlation structure from observations over North America

Estimation of spatial correlations should be an integral part of objective analysis of geophysical variables. However, a statistical assessment of spatial correlations has been absent from studies of objective analysis of snow depth since its debut over 2 decades ago. We show a method for computing regional spatial correlations of observed snow depth and the daily snow depth increment and fitting them to correlation functions to estimate the correlation scale parameters. Both horizontal and vertical distance correlations are computed from station observations over a well sampled part of North America. The vertical and horizontal distance correlations are fitted to exponential functions using the least square method to estimate the correlation scale parameters including the amplitude, which represents short distance correlation. Our assessment suggests a large horizontal e-folding correlation scale for both the observed snow depth and the daily increment, with implications for improving predictions in poorly monitored areas with relatively flat topography. Over mountainous terrain, vertical e-folding correlation scale for observed snow depth is much smaller than that for the daily snow depth increment and for the snow depth increment used in operational snow analyses. That means that optimal interpolation-based analysis of the increments may be more accurate than the interpolation of snow depth data

Snow Cover Monitoring from Remote-Sensing Satellites: Possibilities for Drought Assessment

Snow cover is an important earth surface characteristic because it influences partitioning of the surface radiation, energy, and hydrologic budgets. Snow is also an important source of moisture for agricultural crops and water supply in many higher latitude or mountainous areas. For instance, snowmelt provides approximately 50%–80% of the annual runoff in the western United States (Pagano and Garen, 2006) and Canadian Prairies (Gray et al., 1989; Fang and Pomeroy, 2007), which substantially impacts warm season hydrology. Limited soil moisture reserves from the winter period can result in agricultural drought (i.e., severe early growing season vegetation stress if rainfall deficits occur during that period), which can be prolonged or intensified well into the growing season if relatively dry conditions persist. Snow cover deficits can also result in hydrological drought (i.e., severe deficits in surface and subsurface water reserves including soil moisture, streamflow, reservoir and lake levels, and groundwater) since snowmelt runoff is the primary source of moisture to recharge these reserves for a wide range of agricultural, commercial, ecological, and municipal purposes. Semiarid regions that rely on snowmelt are especially vulnerable to winter moisture shortfalls since these areas are more likely to experience frequent droughts. In the Canadian Prairies, more than half the years of three decades (1910–1920, 1930–1939, and 1980–1989) were in drought. Wheaton et al. (2005) reported exceptionally low precipitation and low snow cover in the winter of 2000–2001, with the greatest anomalies of precipitation in Alberta and western Saskatchewan along with near-normal temperature in most of southern Canada. The reduced snowfall led to lower snow accumulation. A loss in agricultural production over Canada by an estimated $3.6 billion in 2001–2002 was attributed to this drought. Fang and Pomeroy (2008) analyzed the impacts of the most recent and severe drought of 1999/2004–2005 for part of the Canadian Prairies on the water supply of a wetland basin by using a physically based cold region hydrologic modeling system. Simulation results showed that much lower winter precipitation, less snow accumulation, and shorter snow cover duration were associated with much lower discharge from snowmelt runoff to the wetland area during much of the drought period of 1999/2004–2005 than during the nondrought period of 2005/2006

Snow Cover Monitoring from Remote-Sensing Satellites: Possibilities for Drought Assessment

Snow cover is an important earth surface characteristic because it influences partitioning of the surface radiation, energy, and hydrologic budgets. Snow is also an important source of moisture for agricultural crops and water supply in many higher latitude or mountainous areas. For instance, snowmelt provides approximately 50%–80% of the annual runoff in the western United States (Pagano and Garen, 2006) and Canadian Prairies (Gray et al., 1989; Fang and Pomeroy, 2007), which substantially impacts warm season hydrology. Limited soil moisture reserves from the winter period can result in agricultural drought (i.e., severe early growing season vegetation stress if rainfall deficits occur during that period), which can be prolonged or intensified well into the growing season if relatively dry conditions persist. Snow cover deficits can also result in hydrological drought (i.e., severe deficits in surface and subsurface water reserves including soil moisture, streamflow, reservoir and lake levels, and groundwater) since snowmelt runoff is the primary source of moisture to recharge these reserves for a wide range of agricultural, commercial, ecological, and municipal purposes. Semiarid regions that rely on snowmelt are especially vulnerable to winter moisture shortfalls since these areas are more likely to experience frequent droughts. In the Canadian Prairies, more than half the years of three decades (1910–1920, 1930–1939, and 1980–1989) were in drought. Wheaton et al. (2005) reported exceptionally low precipitation and low snow cover in the winter of 2000–2001, with the greatest anomalies of precipitation in Alberta and western Saskatchewan along with near-normal temperature in most of southern Canada. The reduced snowfall led to lower snow accumulation. A loss in agricultural production over Canada by an estimated $3.6 billion in 2001–2002 was attributed to this drought. Fang and Pomeroy (2008) analyzed the impacts of the most recent and severe drought of 1999/2004–2005 for part of the Canadian Prairies on the water supply of a wetland basin by using a physically based cold region hydrologic modeling system. Simulation results showed that much lower winter precipitation, less snow accumulation, and shorter snow cover duration were associated with much lower discharge from snowmelt runoff to the wetland area during much of the drought period of 1999/2004–2005 than during the nondrought period of 2005/2006

Snowfall Rate Retrieval Using Passive Microwave Measurements and Its Applications in Weather Forecast and Hydrology

(AMSU), Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) and Advance Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS). ATMS is the followon sensor to AMSU and MHS. Currently, an AMSU and MHS based land snowfall rate (SFR) product is running operationally at NOAA/NESDIS. Based on the AMSU/MHS SFR, an ATMS SFR algorithm has also been developed. The algorithm performs retrieval in three steps: snowfall detection, retrieval of cloud properties, and estimation of snow particle terminal velocity and snowfall rate. The snowfall detection component utilizes principal component analysis and a logistic regression model. It employs a combination of temperature and water vapor sounding channels to detect the scattering signal from falling snow and derives the probability of snowfall. Cloud properties are retrieved using an inversion method with an iteration algorithm and a twostream radiative transfer model. A method adopted to calculate snow particle terminal velocity. Finally, snowfall rate is computed by numerically solving a complex integral. The SFR products are being used mainly in two communities: hydrology and weather forecast. Global blended precipitation products traditionally do not include snowfall derived from satellites because such products were not available operationally in the past. The ATMS and AMSU/MHS SFR now provide the winter precipitation information for these blended precipitation products. Weather forecasters mainly rely on radar and station observations for snowfall forecast. The SFR products can fill in gaps where no conventional snowfall data are available to forecasters. The products can also be used to confirm radar and gauge snowfall data and increase forecasters' confidence in their prediction

Ground-based Assessment of Snowfall Detection over Land Using Polarimetric High Frequency Microwave Measurements

This paper explores the capability of high frequency microwave measurements at vertical and horizontal polarizations in detecting snowfall over land. Surface in-situ meteorological data were collected over Conterminous US during two winter seasons in 2014–2015 and 2015–2016. Statistical analysis of the in-situ data, matched with Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) measurements on board NASA/JAXA Core Observatory, showed that the polarization difference at 166 GHz had the highest correlation to measured snowfall rate compared to the single channel high frequency measurements and the polarization difference at 89 GHz. A logistic regression model applied to the match-up data, using the polarization difference at 166 and 89 GHz as predictors, yielded an overall snowfall classification rate of 69.0%, with the largest contribution coming from the polarization difference at 166 GHz. Logistic regression using the four single channels as predictors (at 89 and 166 GHz, horizontal and vertical polarizations) further indicated that the horizontal polarization at 166 GHz was the most important contributor. An overall classification rate of 73% was achieved by including the 183.31 ± 3 GHz and 183.31 ± 7 GHz vertical polarization channels in the final logistic regression model. Evaluation of the final algorithm demonstrated skill in snowfall detection of two significant events

Mapping of Snow Depth by Blending Satellite and In-Situ Data Using Two-Dimensional Optimal Interpolation—Application to AMSR2

The development of a snow depth product over North America is investigated by applying two-dimensional optimal interpolation to passive microwave satellite-derived and in-situ measured snow depth. At each snow-covered satellite footprint, the technique computes a snow depth increment as the weighted average of data increments, and updates the satellite-derived snow depth accordingly. Data increments are computed as the difference between the in-situ-measured and satellite snow depth at station locations surrounding the satellite footprint. Calculation of optimal weights is based on spatial lag autocorrelation of snow depth increments, modelled as functions of horizontal distance and elevation difference between pairs of observations. The technique is applied to Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) snow depth and in-situ snow depth obtained from the Global Historical Climatology Network. The results over North America during January–February 2017 indicate that the technique greatly enhances the performance of the satellite estimates, especially over mountain terrain, albeit with an accuracy inferior to that over low elevation areas. Moreover, the technique generates more accurate output compared to that from NOAA’s Global Forecast System, with implications for improving the utilization of satellite data in snow assessments and numerical weather prediction

Snowfall Rate Retrieval using NPP ATMS Passive Microwave Measurements

Passive microwave measurements at certain high frequencies are sensitive to the scattering effect of snow particles and can be utilized to retrieve snowfall properties. Some of the microwave sensors with snowfall sensitive channels are Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) and Advance Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS). ATMS is the followon sensor to AMSU and MHS. Currently, an AMSU and MHS based land snowfall rate (SFR) product is running operationally at NOAA/NESDIS. Based on the AMSU/MHS SFR, an ATMS SFR algorithm has been developed recently. The algorithm performs retrieval in three steps: snowfall detection, retrieval of cloud properties, and estimation of snow particle terminal velocity and snowfall rate. The snowfall detection component utilizes principal component analysis and a logistic regression model. The model employs a combination of temperature and water vapor sounding channels to detect the scattering signal from falling snow and derive the probability of snowfall (Kongoli et al., 2014). In addition, a set of NWP model based filters is also employed to improve the accuracy of snowfall detection. Cloud properties are retrieved using an inversion method with an iteration algorithm and a twostream radiative transfer model (Yan et al., 2008). A method developed by Heymsfield and Westbrook (2010) is adopted to calculate snow particle terminal velocity. Finally, snowfall rate is computed by numerically solving a complex integral. The ATMS SFR product is validated against radar and gauge snowfall data and shows that the ATMS algorithm outperforms the AMSU/MHS SFR